Monthly Archives: July 2026

The headlines have focused on who has moved into Number 10. The more important story is what happens next.

Andy Burnham has now taken over as Prime Minister, bringing with him a fresh agenda centred on economic growth, devolution and investment across the UK. While leadership changes naturally dominate the headlines, history suggests it is the decisions made in the weeks and months that follow which have the greatest impact on households, businesses and investors.

Attention will soon turn from personalities to policy. The government’s first Budget, its approach to taxation and public spending, support for businesses and plans to encourage investment will all help shape the economic outlook.

Here are five areas we’ll be watching particularly closely.

1. The First Budget

The first Budget is often the clearest indication of a new government’s priorities.

While election campaigns provide broad direction, Budgets reveal where governments intend to spend money, where they hope to raise revenue and which areas of the economy they want to support.

For households, this could include measures affecting taxation, pensions, inheritance tax, savings and property. For businesses, the focus may be on investment incentives, employment costs and economic growth.

The latest Budget announcements and supporting documents can be found via HM Treasury.

2. Whether Economic Growth Becomes a Reality

Economic growth remains one of the biggest challenges facing the UK economy.

Higher growth can support wages, improve public finances and create greater opportunities for businesses. However, generating sustainable growth is often easier said than done.

The new government has spoken about encouraging investment, improving productivity and supporting regional economies. Investors and businesses will be looking closely to see how these ambitions translate into practical policy.

Key economic data is published regularly by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), including GDP figures, employment data and business activity indicators.

3. Inflation and Interest Rates

Although the government does not directly control interest rates, its policies can influence inflation, market confidence and economic expectations.

Following several years of elevated inflation and higher borrowing costs, many households continue to feel the impact through mortgage payments, household bills and day-to-day spending.

The Bank of England remains responsible for setting interest rates, with decisions based on inflation and broader economic conditions. Markets will be watching closely to see whether government policy supports a stable environment for future rate reductions.

The latest inflation figures are available from the Office for National Statistics Inflation Hub, while interest rate decisions can be found on the Bank of England Bank Rate page.

4. Regional Investment and Devolution

One area where Andy Burnham has built much of his reputation is regional growth and devolution.

As Mayor of Greater Manchester, he consistently argued that local areas should have greater control over transport, housing, skills and economic development.

It will be interesting to see whether this philosophy is applied more broadly across the UK.

For businesses and communities outside London, greater regional investment could create opportunities through infrastructure projects, regeneration programmes and local economic development initiatives.

Progress on major infrastructure and regional investment projects can be monitored through UK Government announcements.

5. Tax and Wealth Planning

For many Digby Associates clients, one of the most important areas to watch will be tax and wealth planning.

Inheritance tax, pension legislation, capital gains tax, business taxation and property-related taxes all have the potential to influence long-term financial plans.

Even where no immediate changes are announced, governments often signal future policy direction well before legislation is introduced.

This makes regular financial reviews particularly valuable, ensuring plans remain aligned with both personal goals and the wider economic environment.

For independent analysis of government forecasts and public finances, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)remains one of the most useful sources available.

Looking Beyond the Headlines

Political change naturally attracts attention, but for most households, businesses and investors, the real impact comes from the policies that follow rather than the personalities involved.

The coming months will provide a clearer picture of the new government’s economic priorities and how those priorities may affect the financial landscape.

As always, while headlines can create uncertainty, long-term financial planning is rarely about reacting to short-term political events. Instead, it is about understanding the changing environment, reviewing your plans regularly and remaining focused on your long-term objectives.

We’ll be watching closely.

It’s well trodden that Artificial intelligence has been steadily finding its way into our everyday lives, helping us write emails, plan holidays, answer questions and even organise our schedules.

Now it is taking a significant step into personal finance.

OpenAI recently launched a new personal finance experience in the United States that allows ChatGPT to connect securely to financial accounts and provide insights based on a user’s actual spending, savings and investments. Rather than answering general questions about money, it can analyse real financial data and help users understand their finances in far greater detail.

It’s an impressive development.

But it also raises an interesting question:

When does financial guidance become financial advice?

A New Financial Assistant

For many people, managing money can feel overwhelming.

Bank accounts, pensions, savings, investments, mortgages, insurance policies and tax rules all compete for attention. It’s no surprise that many consumers are looking for tools that can help them make sense of it all.

The appeal of AI is obvious.

Imagine asking questions such as:

“How much did I spend on eating out last month?”

“Could I save more each month?”

“How close am I to reaching my savings goal?”

“Where is most of my money going?”

These are exactly the kinds of tasks AI can perform extremely well. It can organise information, identify patterns and present data in a way that is easy to understand.

For many people, that could be a genuinely useful step forward in improving financial awareness.

Better Information Is a Good Thing

There is no doubt that greater access to information can help people make better financial decisions.

Many of us have experienced the frustration of searching for answers to financial questions online, only to find conflicting opinions or pages of technical jargon.

AI has the potential to make financial information more accessible.

It can explain concepts such as ISAs, pensions, inheritance tax and investing in plain English. It can help people understand their spending habits and encourage more engagement with their finances.

In that respect, tools like ChatGPT could play an important role in improving financial literacy.

And that’s something to be welcomed.

But Money Is Rarely Just Maths

The challenge is that financial planning is rarely just about numbers.

Two people can have exactly the same income, savings and investments and still make completely different decisions.

Why?

Because financial decisions are influenced by far more than spreadsheets.

They are shaped by family circumstances, personal experiences, goals, fears and priorities.

One person may be worried about retiring too early.

Another may be concerned about funding future care costs.

A parent may be wondering how best to support their children financially.

A business owner may be deciding whether to invest in their company or focus on their own retirement plans.

These questions cannot be answered by looking at transaction data alone.

Information Versus Advice

This is where an important distinction exists.

Information is valuable.

Advice is personal.

An AI tool might tell you that you spent £500 on restaurants last month or that your pension contributions have increased over the past year.

What it cannot fully understand is why you are making those decisions or how they fit into your wider financial goals.

Good financial planning is often less about finding the “right” answer and more about understanding the trade-offs.

Should you help your children now or preserve more of your wealth for later life?

Should you retire next year or continue working for a few more years?

Should you take more investment risk or prioritise security?

These are personal decisions that depend on circumstances that rarely appear on a bank statement.

The Future Is Probably Both

The arrival of AI in personal finance does not mean advisers become less relevant.

If anything, it may make human advice more valuable.

As information becomes easier to access, the real challenge becomes interpretation. Understanding what matters, what doesn’t and how different decisions fit together remains where experienced advice can add significant value.

AI may become an excellent tool for organising financial information, highlighting trends and helping people engage more closely with their finances.

But financial planning has always been about more than data.

It is about helping people make confident decisions about their future.

Final Thoughts

The development of AI-powered financial tools is undoubtedly exciting.

Anything that helps people better understand their finances is likely to be a positive step.

But understanding your finances and deciding what to do about them are not always the same thing.

Technology can tell you where your money has been.

It can help explain rules, identify patterns and answer questions.

What it cannot fully understand are your ambitions, concerns, family circumstances and the things that matter most to you.

Perhaps that is where the future of financial planning lies.

Not AI versus advisers.

But AI and advisers working together, combining the power of technology with the judgement, experience and understanding that comes from human conversation.

If you’ve been following the property market recently, you could be forgiven for feeling slightly confused.

One month, headlines suggest house prices are rising again. The next, reports point to falling values. Depending on which index you read, the market can appear to be moving in different directions altogether.

So what is actually happening to UK house prices?

The reality is that the market is currently being pulled in several different directions at once, with interest rates, mortgage affordability, housing supply and buyer confidence all playing a role.

The Numbers Don’t Always Agree

One reason for the apparent confusion is that different organisations measure house prices in different ways. The UK’s most widely reported house price indices, including those produced by the  ⁠Nationwide House Price Index, Halifax and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), all use different methodologies and datasets.

The UK’s most widely reported house price indices, including those produced by Nationwide, Halifax and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), all use different methodologies and datasets.

As a result, it is not unusual to see one index reporting modest growth while another reports a slight decline.

What they broadly agree on, however, is that the rapid house price growth seen during and immediately after the pandemic has slowed considerably.

Rather than a market experiencing dramatic rises or falls, many areas of the country are now seeing relatively modest movements in either direction.

Interest Rates Changed Everything

The biggest factor influencing the housing market over the past few years has been interest rates.

Between December 2021 and August 2023, the Bank of England increased Base Rate from 0.1% to 5.25% as it attempted to bring inflation under control. You can view the latest decisions and historical changes on the ⁠Bank of England’s Bank Rate page. While rates have since eased, borrowing costs remain significantly higher than many buyers became accustomed to during the ultra-low-rate era.

For many households, affordability has become the key issue.

Someone borrowing £300,000 at 2% faces very different monthly repayments to someone borrowing the same amount at 5%.

As a result, many buyers have had to reduce their budgets, which has naturally placed downward pressure on property values in some areas.

Mortgage Rates Are Beginning to Improve

There are signs that conditions may be becoming slightly more favourable.

As inflation has moved closer to the Bank of England’s target and expectations of future interest rate cuts have grown, many lenders have gradually reduced mortgage rates.

While mortgage costs remain higher than they were a few years ago, buyers today are generally facing better borrowing conditions than they were during the peak of the interest rate cycle.

This has helped support activity in the housing market and improve confidence among both buyers and sellers.

Supply and Demand Remain Uneven

The UK continues to face a long-term housing shortage.

Successive governments have struggled to build enough homes to meet demand, which provides some support for prices over the longer term.

However, property remains a highly local market.

While some regions continue to experience strong demand and limited supply, others are seeing a more balanced market where buyers have greater negotiating power.

This helps explain why house price trends can vary significantly depending on location.

The Stamp Duty Effect

Another factor influencing recent figures has been the ending of temporary Stamp Duty support measures.

Whenever tax incentives or policy changes are introduced, they often encourage buyers to bring purchases forward.

This can create a short-term surge in activity followed by a quieter period once the deadline passes.

As a result, some of the recent fluctuations in transaction levels and house price data may reflect timing effects rather than any fundamental change in the health of the housing market.

What About First-Time Buyers?

First-time buyers continue to face some of the greatest challenges.

Although wage growth has improved in recent years, higher mortgage rates mean affordability remains stretched in many parts of the country.

Saving for a deposit also remains difficult, particularly in areas where house prices significantly outpace average earnings.

At the same time, a more stable interest rate environment may gradually improve opportunities for those looking to enter the market over the coming years.

What Does This Mean for Homeowners and Investors?

For existing homeowners, the current market is very different from the one many experienced over the previous decade.

Double-digit annual price growth is no longer the norm.

Instead, the market appears to be returning to something closer to historical averages, where local economic conditions, affordability and housing supply play a greater role in determining prices.

For property investors, the environment has also become more complex. Higher borrowing costs, changes to tax rules and evolving rental regulations mean investment decisions require careful consideration.

Final Thoughts

The recent fluctuations in UK house prices are not the result of a single factor.

Instead, they reflect the interaction between higher borrowing costs, changing mortgage rates, housing supply constraints and shifting buyer confidence.

The good news is that the dramatic uncertainty seen immediately after interest rates began rising has started to ease.

While house prices may continue to move up and down from month to month, the bigger picture suggests a market that is gradually adjusting to a new normal, one where affordability matters more, borrowing costs remain important and long-term fundamentals continue to shape the direction of travel.

As England’s World Cup campaign sadly came to an end, it’s worth reflecting on the wider impact major tournaments can have beyond the football itself.

Pubs filled up, living rooms became fan zones and conversations in offices, cafés and shops increasingly revolved around the next match.

But while most of the focus is understandably on what happens on the pitch, major tournaments can also have a noticeable impact on the economy.

From consumer spending and business activity to confidence and even investment markets, sporting events often influence economic behaviour in ways that are easy to overlook.

A Boost for Consumer Spending

One of the most immediate effects of a major tournament is increased consumer spending.

When a national team progresses to the latter stages of a competition, people tend to spend more on social activities. Hospitality businesses are often among the biggest beneficiaries, with pubs, bars and restaurants experiencing increased footfall around match days.

Retailers can also see higher demand for food, drink, televisions, England shirts and other tournament-related products. During previous tournaments, the ⁠British Retail Consortium has reported increased demand for items such as food, drink, televisions and home entertainment products.

While much of this spending is temporary, it can provide a welcome boost to sectors that rely on discretionary consumer spending.

The Confidence Effect

Economists often talk about confidence because it matters.

When people feel optimistic, they are generally more willing to spend, socialise and make purchases they may otherwise delay.

Major sporting tournaments can contribute to this “feel-good factor”. While a football match does not change interest rates, inflation or economic policy, a national team’s progress can temporarily lift mood and sentiment across the country.

This effect is difficult to measure precisely, but measures such as the GfK UK Consumer Confidence Index show how changes in sentiment can influence people’s willingness to spend.

In simple terms, when people feel positive, they often behave differently.

Does It Affect GDP?

Potentially, although usually only modestly.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures economic activity across the country. Increased spending on hospitality, retail and leisure can therefore contribute to economic growth during tournament periods.

However, economists are careful not to overstate the impact.

Much of the spending associated with major sporting events is often redirected rather than entirely new. Money spent in a pub watching England may simply have been spent elsewhere if the tournament was not taking place.

The overall economic impact is therefore typically positive, but relatively small when viewed across the entire UK economy.

There Are Winners and Losers

Not every business benefits equally.

Hospitality, food and drink, travel and entertainment businesses often perform well during major tournaments.

Other sectors may see less of an impact.

For example, retail analysts at Springboard reported that when England played in the Euro 2024 quarter-final against Switzerland, footfall in UK high streets fell by 7.7% during the match, while shopping centre footfall fell by 5.2% and retail parks by 4.2%. Similar patterns were recorded during other major England fixtures.

As with many economic trends, major tournaments tend to create winners and losers rather than lifting every sector equally.

What About Investment Markets?

Interestingly, markets are often far less influenced by sporting success than many people assume.

There have been studies suggesting that investor sentiment can be affected by major sporting results, particularly in the days immediately following significant victories or defeats. However, these effects tend to be short-lived.

Over the longer term, markets remain focused on company earnings, economic growth, inflation and interest rates rather than football results.

For investors, the lesson is an important one. While major events can influence short-term sentiment, long-term investment returns are usually driven by fundamentals rather than headlines.

A Reminder About Human Behaviour

Perhaps the most interesting takeaway is what tournaments reveal about human behaviour.

Whether it is football, a heatwave, a royal celebration or a major national event, people do not make decisions based purely on spreadsheets and logic. Emotion, confidence and shared experiences all influence how we spend, save and invest.

England’s involvement in this year’s tournament may now be over, but the competition provides a useful example of how major sporting events can influence behaviour far beyond the pitch.

The economic impact may be relatively modest, but it serves as a useful reminder that economies are ultimately powered by people, and people are not always as rational as economists like to assume.

Artificial intelligence is rarely out of the headlines. From new AI tools and workplace automation to discussions about productivity, jobs and economic growth, the technology is attracting enormous attention from businesses, investors and consumers alike. And with that attention comes a familiar question:

Could AI be creating an investment bubble?

The truth is that nobody knows for certain.

What we do know is that history offers an important lesson for investors: a revolutionary technology does not automatically make every company involved a great investment.

We’ve Been Here Before

Every generation experiences a technological breakthrough that changes the world. Today, that technology is artificial intelligence. Before that it was smartphones, the internet, electricity and railways. What’s interesting is that many of these technologies genuinely delivered on their promise. Railways transformed travel and commerce, electricity changed how we lived and worked, and the internet revolutionised communication, shopping and access to information. However, while the technologies succeeded, many of the investments surrounding them did not.

The dot-com boom of the late 1990s is perhaps the best-known example. Investors poured money into internet businesses amid excitement about the digital future. In many ways, they were right, the internet went on to transform almost every aspect of modern life. Yet many of the companies attracting the greatest attention, including Pets.com and Webvan, failed completely when the bubble burst.

A similar pattern occurred during the railway boom of the 1840s. Railways changed Britain forever, but many railway companies failed to deliver the returns investors expected.

The lesson is not that investors should avoid transformational technologies. Rather, it is that identifying a technology that will change the world is often much easier than identifying which companies will ultimately benefit most from it.

Artificial intelligence may prove to be one of the defining technologies of our generation. But history suggests that while the technology itself may succeed, not every company associated with it will necessarily do the same.

A Great Technology Doesn’t Guarantee a Great Investment

This is an important distinction that investors sometimes overlook. When excitement around a new technology builds, it can become easy to assume that every business connected to it will benefit indefinitely. In reality, successful investing depends on much more than simply identifying an important trend.

Competition matters.

Valuation matters.

Profitability matters.

Management quality matters.

A company can be involved in a revolutionary technology and still prove to be a disappointing investment if expectations become unrealistic or growth fails to match the enthusiasm surrounding it. It is important to separate our view of a technology from our view of an investment opportunity.

Why We Get Carried Away

Human psychology plays a significant role in investment markets. When a new technology captures public attention, investors naturally begin imagining how large the opportunity could become. Behavioural economists have long studied phenomena such as herd behaviour, recency bias and fear of missing out (FOMO), all of which can influence decision-making during periods of excitement. As Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money, has often highlighted, successful investing is often less about intelligence and more about behaviour. Markets are driven by people, and people are not always rational – that doesn’t mean enthusiasm for AI is misplaced. Far from it, it simply means that excitement and investment returns are not always the same thing.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

For most investors, the rise of AI is unlikely to change the principles of good investing.

Diversification remains important.

Long-term thinking remains important.

Building a portfolio aligned to your goals remains important.

Trying to predict which technology company will be the biggest winner over the next decade is extremely difficult. History suggests even professional investors often struggle to get these calls consistently right. Instead, many investors benefit from maintaining a disciplined approach and ensuring they have exposure to a broad range of companies, sectors and opportunities.

Looking Beyond the Headlines

Artificial intelligence may well prove to be one of the most significant technological developments of our lifetime.

Its potential applications are already being explored across healthcare, finance, manufacturing, education and countless other industries.

For those interested in learning more about the technology itself, the UK’s Alan Turing Institute⁠ provides valuable insights into current developments, while the  International Monetary Fund’s research on AI and the economy⁠ explores some of the potential economic impacts.

But when it comes to investing, it is worth remembering that technological progress and investment returns are not always the same thing.

Final Thoughts

AI may transform industries, create new opportunities and reshape parts of the global economy. But investors have seen similar moments before. The technologies that changed the world were not always matched by investment success for every company involved. The challenge is not deciding whether AI is important but remembering that a great technology and a great investment are not necessarily the same thing. For long-term investors, keeping that distinction in mind may prove just as valuable as understanding the technology itself.

With the June heatwave out the way and more expected, the changes in the spaces around us seem obvious when the weather peaks. Parks become busier, beaches fill up, barbecues appear and conversations quickly turn to the weather.

But behind the scenes, consumer spending habits also begin to change.

A spell of unusually warm weather can have a surprisingly significant effect on how, where and when people spend their money. For some businesses, a heatwave can provide a welcome boost. For others, it can create challenges as consumer priorities temporarily shift.

Sunshine Changes Spending Habits

Perhaps unsurprisingly, warmer weather tends to increase spending on activities that help people make the most of the sunshine.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has regularly reported that periods of warm weather boost sales of seasonal products, particularly food, drink and outdoor leisure items. Supermarkets often see higher sales of barbecue food, soft drinks, salads, fresh fruit and ice cream, while pubs, cafés and restaurants with outdoor seating can benefit from increased footfall.

Domestic tourism can also receive a boost. As temperatures rise, many people choose day trips, seaside visits and short breaks closer to home, creating opportunities for attractions, hospitality businesses and tourism operators across the country.

For many consumers, good weather creates a sense of spontaneity. A meal out becomes a barbecue. A quiet weekend becomes a day at the coast. Small spending decisions quickly add up across the economy.

Retail Spending Shifts

Heatwaves don’t simply increase spending, they change it.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) retail sales data⁠, weather conditions can have a measurable impact on retail sales performance, particularly within clothing, food and seasonal goods categories.

Retailers often see increased demand for summer clothing, sandals, garden furniture and outdoor leisure equipment. But some of the biggest winners can be surprisingly niche.

During previous UK heatwaves, retailers have reported significant spikes in demand for electric fans, portable air conditioning units and blackout curtains as households look for ways to keep their homes cool. Paddling pools regularly sell out, while garden parasols and outdoor furniture can become difficult to source during prolonged spells of hot weather.

Pet products have also emerged as unexpected beneficiaries in recent years. Cooling mats for dogs, portable pet water bottles and shaded outdoor shelters often experience increased demand as owners look to keep their animals comfortable.

There are even examples of products benefiting from what might be described as “heatwave optimism”. Inflatable hot tubs, outdoor speakers, garden games and premium barbecue equipment have all enjoyed strong sales during periods of sustained sunshine, as consumers seek to make the most of good weather while it lasts.

When It Gets Too Hot

Interestingly, there can be a tipping point.

When temperatures move beyond pleasantly warm and into the high 20s or 30s, some consumers begin looking for ways to escape the heat rather than embrace it.

In a country where air conditioning remains relatively uncommon in homes, indoor venues can suddenly become much more appealing. Estimates suggest that fewer than 5% of UK homes have fixed air conditioning, meaning shopping centres, cinemas, museums and other climate-controlled venues can offer welcome relief during periods of extreme heat.

Research published by the Met Office⁠ has highlighted how weather conditions influence leisure activities, travel patterns and consumer behaviour. As temperatures climb, people often adapt by changing where they spend their time as well as where they spend their money.

The result is that some businesses benefit twice, first from consumers enjoying the sunshine and then from consumers looking for relief from it.

The Psychology Behind It

One of the most interesting aspects of heatwave spending is that it is often driven by emotion as much as necessity.

Behavioural economists such as Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman have shown that our financial decisions are often influenced by context as much as logic. Factors such as weather, mood and social activity can all shape spending behaviour, helping to explain why periods of good weather often lead to increases in leisure and discretionary spending.

When the sun appears in Britain, there can be a collective sense that the opportunity should be enjoyed while it lasts. People are more likely to socialise, travel, eat out and spend money on experiences.

In many ways, a heatwave encourages people to live more in the present.

That can be positive, but it also serves as a reminder that our financial decisions are often shaped by our environment as much as our financial plans.

Not Every Business Benefits

Of course, not all sectors benefit equally.

Consumer spending is rarely unlimited. When people spend more in one area, they often spend less elsewhere.

While warmer weather can boost spending in hospitality, tourism and seasonal retail categories, the Office for National Statistics retail sales data⁠ demonstrates that changes in consumer behaviour often redistribute spending rather than increase it evenly across the economy.

Some retailers may experience quieter periods as consumers prioritise outdoor activities, holidays or leisure experiences. Certain product categories can see demand fall while seasonal products surge.

Heatwaves therefore create winners and losers across the economy, even if overall spending rises in the short term.

What It Means for Financial Planning

A heatwave is unlikely to transform anybody’s long-term financial position, but it does provide an interesting reminder of how external events influence our spending behaviour.

Whether it’s a spell of hot weather, a major sporting event, a market downturn or economic uncertainty, our financial decisions are often shaped by factors that have little to do with spreadsheets and budgets.

The key is not to avoid enjoying those experiences.

Rather, it’s about recognising how our environment influences our decisions and ensuring short-term spending remains aligned with longer-term goals.

Final Thoughts

The British weather may be unpredictable, but one thing remains remarkably consistent: when the sun comes out, spending habits change.

From increased spending on food, drink and leisure through to unexpected surges in demand for fans, paddling pools and even pet cooling products, heatwaves have a surprisingly wide-ranging impact on consumer behaviour.

Perhaps most interestingly, they remind us that spending is rarely driven by numbers alone. Our mood, our environment and our perception of opportunity all play a role in shaping the financial decisions we make.

And when the next heatwave arrives, chances are many of us will be reaching for our wallets just as quickly as we reach for the sun cream.